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The Financial Ironmonger Blog No 36/2019

The Financial Ironmonger Blog No 36/2019

Every week our guest blogger, David Oakes of Mosaic Money Management (aka The Financial Ironmonger), shares with us his take on some of the major UK and overseas macro and political events that shaped the previous week.

Please be reminded the value of investments, and the income from them, may fall or rise. The views expressed in this article are those of the author at the date of publication and not necessarily those of Chelverton Asset Management Limited or Mosaic Money Management. The contents of this article are not intended as investment or tax advice and will not be updated after publication unless otherwise stated.

–THE FINANCIAL IRONMONGER BLOG NO 36/2019–

 I am not sure that I understand where this is going, but presumably Boris, and his chief strategist do. In the last week, he has lost a vote which now means he is not able to leave the EU without a “deal”. And he failed to win a vote to call a General Election, which requires a two thirds majority under the fixed term parliament act.

He could try and call a no confidence vote in his own government, which requires a simple majority, but since he no longer has one, that could prove equally problematic. He has fired 21 of his own MPs, seen one cross the floor to the Lib Dems, and one, his own brother, simply resign as an MP altogether. So, if there is a clear plan to deliver Brexit by October 31st, it is not obvious to the impartial bystander.

It is clear, in the short term at least, that the Conservative party is going to faithfully reflect his views, and none other, and that all new candidates are going to mirror that. The broad church has lost its roof, much the same as Labour, and have become single issue parties, which are quite extreme. Except in the case of Labour, they haven’t quite worked out that this is the situation they find themselves in.

Having called for a General Election thirty times since 2017, they are now voting against having one, which in more normal times would be suicidal, but now appears quite balanced, to some. In so much as you can make any sense out of the polls, an electoral pact between the Conservatives and the Brexit party would deliver an overwhelming majority, but only if the election was held pre-Brexit.

Thereafter, support for the Conservatives falls away, but increases for the Brexit party, so Boris has really bet the future on getting this done according to his timescale. He might, just, be saved by the EU refusing to grant any further extension, (the irony), or they might give him plenty of string, knowing that he will be a busted flush long before Christmas, in which case Brexit is unlikely to happen in the lifetime of most of the loyal supporters of this blog.

Had you gone for a walk around the block on Wednesday lunchtime, to clear your head, you would have missed the Chancellor announcing the end of austerity, which looked more like a pre-election give away. The usual causes won out, NHS, education, law and order, with a sop to defence, all forgotten about twenty-four hours later.

Meanwhile, the local section of the M6 was closed on Wednesday evening following a crash between a lorry and a tanker. Hardly newsworthy, you might think, but the tanker contained 32,000 litres of gin, which at say £20 a unit equals £640,000, all washed down the drain. Just when you thought you were having a bad day…..

–MORE ABOUT OUR GUEST BLOGGER, DAVID OAKES–

David joined Manchester stockbroker Henry Cooke, Lumsden in 1977 and after becoming a member of the London Stock Exchange in 1984 held a number of senior positions within the firm including Managing Director of the in-house fund management company and member of the Executive Committee.

After senior appointments at Cazenove Fund Management and latterly Mercater Capital Management, David joined Mosaic Money Management in 2013. He has successfully managed private client and fund portfolios for over thirty years and has particular expertise in providing a multi manager service to his loyal client base.

The Financial Ironmonger is a hat-tip to Ironmonger Lane, the location of Chelverton’s London office.